Contextualizing the Probability of Near-Earth Object Impacts

This research places the probability of a Near-Earth Object (NEO) impact in context with other preventable causes of death, providing a framework for assessing the relative risk and informing resource allocation for planetary defense. By deriving an impact frequency of NEOs 140m and larger using the NEOMOD2 NEO population model and JPL Horizons, the study compares the likelihood of a planet-wide impact event with individual events that cause fatalities, such as car crashes and carbon monoxide poisoning.

The findings reveal that the chance of a >140m asteroid hitting the Earth is more likely than the chance of an individual being struck by lightning. This comparison underscores the potential for NEO impacts to cause extensive damage and loss of life on a global scale. The study also acknowledges advancements in NEO discovery, trajectory prediction, and deflection technology, highlighting the potential for preventing an impact with sufficient warning time.

By contextualizing the risk of NEO impacts, this research aims to promote informed decision-making regarding planetary defense strategies and resource allocation. While the probability of a catastrophic impact may be relatively low, the potential consequences are so severe that continued investment in NEO detection, tracking, and deflection technologies is warranted. Furthermore, international collaboration and coordination are essential for effectively addressing the threat posed by NEOs and safeguarding human civilization.

_Context: This intelligence report was compiled by the DailyOrbitalWire Strategy Engine. Verified for Art. 50 Compliance._