Modeling Civilization Collapse and Recovery: Implications for Technosignature Searches

This study models the collapse-recovery dynamics of Earth's technosphere across ten plausible futures over a 1000-year window. The research aims to understand how long a technological civilization remains active and what determines whether it collapses or persists. The duty cycle, defined as the fraction of its total lifespan that a civilization is technologically active, varies significantly across the simulated scenarios. The model identifies governance structure, resource pressure, and hazard exposure as key factors shaping trajectory outcomes. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the resource depletion rate and the post-collapse recovery fraction are consistently the most impactful levers across scenarios. This suggests that reducing resource consumption may be as important as mitigating existential hazards for avoiding civilizational collapse. The study also explores the implications for the search for extraterrestrial technosignatures. It derives an effective detectability duration that accounts for intermittent civilizational activity and suggests that the apparent absence of extraterrestrial signals may reflect the prevalence of low-duty-cycle civilizations rather than the rarity of intelligent life. The research highlights the importance of considering civilizational resilience in both projecting humanity's future and assessing the prevalence of detectable intelligence in the galaxy. The model's findings underscore the need for sustainable resource management and robust recovery strategies to ensure the long-term survival of technological civilizations. This research contributes to a broader understanding of the factors that influence civilizational stability and the potential for detecting extraterrestrial intelligence.

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