Rubin Observatory's LSST to Detect Imminent Earth Impactors

The Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is poised to significantly enhance our ability to detect imminent Earth impactors. While lauded for its contributions to understanding dark energy and other distant phenomena, the LSST will also discover millions of asteroids and thousands of potentially dangerous Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). New research indicates that the LSST will detect approximately 1 or 2 meter-sized and larger NEOs each year that are at imminent risk of impacting Earth, doubling the current detection rate. The median discovery time is estimated to be 1.57 days before impact, which is an improvement over previous detections. Simulations using NASA's Center for NEO Studies database and the Sorcha survey simulator were used to predict the LSST's performance. These simulations show that the LSST will not only increase the number of detections but also provide longer warning times, enabling potential mitigation efforts. The LSST's capabilities will transform our understanding of the NEO population and contribute significantly to planetary defense efforts. However, even with increased warning times, the effectiveness of mitigation strategies remains a challenge.

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